Oekonometrik or other things that matter

Disaster

2007-02-02T21:05:00.000-06:00

Now, here is the take. What to do when you find yourself carrying your group and yet told not to lead them. Your leader though depends on you, using you. He doesn't give you much credit though for what you do. He appears in charge ad presents to the outside as figure head. People start recognizing your capabilities and achievements, though you earn little respect since you can't make thedecision if asked but need to ask your boss. Finally, others around you in other groups get recognized for their work butyou keep plugging away. When you ask, you are told to be patient that your time will come. Now people that came after you get promoted and you end up with more work because your team is bleading out. You have the choice to leave you are told, just wait a bit more.
Your job is sought after in the market. Recruiters keep calling you, but you like your company just not the work structure of your group. Your boss is a nice guy, just a bit behind in modern management of valueing your employees. You even tri3ed sitting down with him assuring him that you want to get through this together and that you'd like the chance to prove yourself even more than you have shown before. Your last review showed you were working above expectations.
Does that sound familiar? Tell me what you think! I curious how you would handle the situation.

Now that is slacking....

2007-01-21T17:36:00.000-06:00

Had I thought I wasn't writting a lot than this an even bigger prove that I am slow here.
I haven't been writting for almost a year...
Now how did that happen?
1.) Well, I could say that I just got a good job and that I didn't have much time to write -- but that would only be an excuse, though true, that's not all
2.) Or, I could point out that my labtop is still broken and I am waiting for getting it back since March 06 -- however, I have access to the web on my desktop and so could if I wasn't too lazy or so write a post here and there. That's not either...
3.) I can argue that the divorce I find myself and the constant fight with my wife since Oct 05 leaves little room for fun and that is perhaps the closet of all reasons.
Truth is, I can't acces this site at work and I haven't had much to say about current events. I simple haven't had the time to read newspapers (though I haven't done much of that in the past!) -- I don't get to surf around and read a lot. Other than psychology books and books on how to get through tough time, I rarely get a good book opened..they sit there for better times. But enough of the self-endulgence of how bad my life is. It is really not that bad. It's getting much better, believe me.
I have done so much in the recent months that I longed for in the last several years and didn't get the chance to do (yes, I didn't make enough effort to do them! My own fault!). I went on trips, skied again, began running again and started rollerblading. I went rock climbing and think I will start picking that up regularly. I love my job, as hard as it is. I am working on statistical modeling and help creating a demand/supply plan tool for a large corporation with more and more responsibility for the entire project. I found that I have som any friends that I ca count on and that are true friends. My family has gotten closer to me despite the great distance of the Atlantic between us. I also started to long for qualtity in art and culture again. The number of movies I watched in the recent months have surpassed -- I believe -- 100!
So, my new years resolution (as if I need just one!) is to write more, do more and become more active in my own life! Done with the passive waiting for someone to acknowledge me and make me happy. I will do that myself, thank you! 8)
Now of to the treadmill....it is vitamine time and the commercials say Ihave to be slim and strong!

Slacker Myself

2006-02-11T12:26:00.000-06:00

I am so embarrassed. I have not gotten a chance to read anything in the news lately nor to keep my own blog running. Now I understand why I came across so many blogs that were outdated when I started out with my blog. It actually takes time to write things and second which is almost equally as important you have to be able to have an opinion on something worth writing about. I admit I currently lack both. My work is taking up a lot of my life. Unfortunately I am bound from publishing it. Only so much, it sucks all my creativity I have left out of me. There are no guidelines on how things have to get done. There is no format or precident, only expectation of what the result should be like if it turns out to be what is expected. But like so often, the more people involved the more differ the expectations on what the result should look like. Still leaves me with the question on how do I get there. I am trying on my own to go beyond the traditional modeling and move into more dynamic modeling, allowing VARs to replace the current forecast systems. You should see the resentment and irritation I earn from my superiors for even attempting to think outside the box. But where else do you find true progress if not resisting the "that's not going to work!" or "why would you do that if the old way still works?" So I want to put in the extra mile to see where this leads, if it doesn't help, then I at least can say I tried.
On another note, I am so proud. My daughter and I spent all morning watching the Olympics in Torino. Last night we had a party for the opening ceremony and it makes me feel so good to see how much she is interested in the games. I can't describe what it means to me. The Olympic spirit of "participation is all" has been with me for all I can remember. To be there and give your best, even when you know that there are others out there outscoring you and still be proud of taking part and giving it all, is so fabulous. There is not a better lesson in life that I want my daughter to get. There is no better role model then Eddie "the Eagle" Edwards ( http://www.nyt.co.uk/eddiethe.htm ) -- link below title -- in my view. Passion was my favorite theme of the ceremony that could not have been more colorful and fantastic than from Italian's beauty-oriented and passionate people. No-one combines better being relaxed/laid-back and yet enjoying life and be succesful. Where can you learn to be like that? Anyway, I envy the athletes and as every time I watch the Olympics it tickels me to go out there and persue my own passion. And here is the sad part, I have no passion I currently persue. Reality tells me that these Olympics won't change that neither, but I can still dream. I mean that is also part of the Olympics that you can dream of winning your goal, right? With that, lets see how long it takes until I write the next post and how much of a contribution that is.
Let the Games begin!

now, where is our economy?

2005-12-10T23:23:00.000-06:00

My work life has taken over my regular postings on this page. I am still here only have to find the time to keep up with the news. Additional, it hurts no being able to read Paul Krugmans column at the NY Times for free anymore. I don;t buy the paper, since I have no time to read it on a regular base and can't afford to support a paper I don't use OTHER than for reading Paul's excellent notes. So I will have to find a better way to read him (I finished his books a while ago!)

I am working right now on implementing a Vector Autoregressive Model on consumer sales patterns and trying to find a good feedback systems for my employer. Not easy to convince people that there is a life beyond simple autoregressive models and that there is indeed canolization effect between products. But this only as a personal note!

I had an interesting conversation today with my wife's grandparents about the state of the American Economy. And here is a point that I haven't thought about. Observation shows that Christmas shopping seems at least in terms of parking spot availability on the mall vicinities booming. This is contrary to the after Thanks Giving findings that consumers were staying away from the Nordstroms, JC Pennies, and Marshall Fields, but rather go for the Walmarts cheap "toys". Bargaining with tight belt and empty pockets this christmas shopping opening reflected the sad state of our economy. The announcement of tens of thousands lay offs by Ford and GM, while record high number filed for bankruptcy, just put the nail into the already rotten billboard of the decaying economy. So why now the myth of full parking lots at the mall next door. Numbers have to back my finding, but I have a feeling that either the increase in consumer dept or the mere window shopping of what one could by or wish for if the money was there, is responsible for it. Now if we keep having the same weather pattern this winter that we had in the fall, one could see a frosty retail business. Who wants to shop in the cold or who will deliver during the next snow storm if you buy online?

The Pilot is leaving the ship...

2005-10-25T21:40:00.000-05:00

I have this great picture in ming of Otto von Bismarck coming down the gateway of the ship! This week we finally heard who the President chose to nominate (whatever that may yield!) as the new FED chairman. Greenspan's boots as sure deep to fill, but what changes will Ben Bernanke bring? For ones, the nominee has actually qualifications and is not know by the President personnally for over a decade, which at once is plus. He does have a good academic background and I am affraid I know very little about him. Which means I have to go back and check up on him a bit...so see this as a start! Than again, maybe I should wait and see if he actually get the position. Maybe his religious views are not right-wing enough to accept him. From an economist view, I like that he seems unbiased to the untrained eye and I hope I can find this reflected in his prefessional work, too. We don'y need a conservative in this postion, we need an unbiased centrist with as little political ambition as possible. Greenspan was too political in some of the recent years and I think it will hurt him in his reputation. I take my hat of for Mankiw that ge left while he could before he became a pundit!

What has happened Here?

2005-09-04T23:46:00.000-05:00

This week I am truely confused. At first I heart on the German news that the hurricane Katrina has struck New Orleans, but the damage was less the expected. I felt relieved and was sure it was another natural disaster which happens unfortunately every year somewhere in the USA. Certainly we would see some of it in the news for the day and maybe the next day. Yes, lives would be hurt and property distroyed, but as in most instances the warning system we have and the infrastructure allow quickly to get the situation under control. Relief funds would kick in and life would return to as close to normal as possible.

I could not have been more wrong! In a nation that has the best equipped military and one of the highest living standards in the worl, an economy power that amounts to numbers other countries haven't dreamed of, we are still dealing with people trapped, starving and officials blaiming one another not sure why things went wrong.

Articles of respectful scientists and reporters re-appear that show that in 2001 besides the number one thread to this nation, a terrorist attack in New York, the third worse thing that could face our country would be a hurricane reaching New Orleans.

If this was known, there were tests and simulations of this scenario as recent as last year, why did it take so long to get the needed help down there? How come it was Friday, the hurricane hit Tuesday, the leeves breached Wednesday, before the there was federal intervention? How come we hear about hotels getting prefered recuing and people sitting at lunch critizising starving people who feel abandond and left behind looting necessities to get by, because they still hadn't gotten any help Thursday in the shelters they were instructed to seak out.

Next, money was cut to give back as tax cuts, and to fund a war in Iraq, money that was used to realise a plan to protect New Orleans from another disasterous hurricane.

I am deeply ashamed that we could not do anything better than that. It seems like people got quicker help after the tsunami in less developed countries with little or no infrastructure. It seems that priority was placed on other issues more than on following experts advise. I don't want to imagine what would happen if the second worst thing would happen, an earthquake in San Francisco.

Now where is the accountability our president wants, or does it really matter who is at fault here? Don't we owe the victims of this storm an explanation and a promise we really will make sure next time will be handle quicker and better? Afterall, this wasn't the last hurricane!

Krugman on China (NYTimes)

2005-07-24T22:21:00.000-05:00

Krugman, too, raises the question, what happens if China stops buying Dollars. He also has a good explanation or suggestion to the answer why the Chinese government keeps the exchange rate below its value, though I am inclined not yet to buy it. I think there is more to it than sheer angst to change it. China is often very rational in its decision making. A change from Dollar reserves to Euro reserves might be ahead (Yen is not likely given the enimocity of the two nations). But the question remains, what would happen when China "takes away our credit card"? But read for yourself:

China Unpegs Itself

By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: July 22, 2005
Thursday's statement from the People's Bank of China, announcing that the yuan is no longer pegged to the dollar, was terse and uninformative - you might say inscrutable. There's a good chance that this is simply a piece of theater designed to buy a few months' respite from protectionist pressures in the U.S. Congress.

Nonetheless, it could be the start of a process that will turn the world economy upside down - or, more accurately, right side up. That is, the free ride China has been giving America, in which the world's richest economy has been getting cheap loans from a country that is dynamic but still quite poor, may be coming to an end.

It's all about which way the capital is flowing.

Capital usually flows from mature, developed economies to less-developed economies on their way up. For example, a lot of America's growth in the 19th century was financed by investors from Britain, which was already industrialized.

A decade ago, before the world financial crisis of 1997-1998, capital movements seemed to fit the historic pattern, as funds flowed from Japan and Western nations to "emerging markets" in Asia and Latin America. But these days things are running in reverse: capital is flowing out of emerging markets, especially China, and into the United States.

This uphill flow isn't the result of private-sector decisions; it's the result of official policy. To keep China's currency from rising, the Chinese government has been buying up huge quantities of dollars and investing the proceeds in U.S. bonds.

One way to grasp how weird this policy is would be to think about what a comparable policy would look like in the United States, scaled up to match the size of our economy. It's as if last year the U.S. government invested $1 trillion of taxpayers' money in low-interest Japanese bonds, and this year looks set to invest an additional $1.5 trillion the same way.

Some economists think there is a deep rationale for this seemingly perverse policy. I think it's something the Chinese government stumbled into as it tried to protect itself from the 1997-1998 crisis, and it is reluctant to change because the Chinese economy has been doing well. That is, China's leaders don't want to mess with success.

But pressures against China's dollar purchases are building. By keeping the yuan down, China is feeding a trade surplus that is creating a growing political backlash in America and Europe. And China, which is still a poor country, is devoting a lot of resources to the accumulation of a basically useless pile of dollars instead of to higher living standards.

The question is what happens to us if the Chinese finally decide to stop acting so strangely.

An end to China's dollar-buying spree would lead to a sharp rise in the value of the yuan. It would probably also lead to a sharp fall in the value of the dollar relative to other major currencies, like the yen and the euro, which the Chinese haven't been buying on the same scale. This would help U.S. manufacturers by raising their competitors' costs.

But if the Chinese stopped buying all those U.S. bonds, interest rates would rise. This would be bad news for housing - maybe very bad news, if the interest rate rise burst the bubble.

In the long run, the economic effects of an end to China's dollar buying would even out. America would have more industrial workers and fewer real estate agents, more jobs in Michigan and fewer in Florida, leaving the overall level of employment pretty much unaffected. But as John Maynard Keynes pointed out, in the long run we are all dead.

In the short run, some people would win, but others would lose. And I suspect that the losers would greatly outnumber the winners.

And what about the strategic effects? Right now America is a superpower living on credit - something I don't think has happened since Philip II ruled Spain. What will happen to our stature if and when China takes away our credit card?

This story is still in its early days. On the first day of the new policy, the yuan rose only 2 percent, not enough to make any noticeable difference. But one of these days Chinese dollar purchases will trail off, and we'll find ourselves living in interesting times.

More about China

2005-07-24T22:09:00.000-05:00

Above is a link to a nice, good discussion of Nouriel Roubini and David Altig on the WSJ website. It will give you a better understanding of what this move by China could mean.

Mark this day in your calendar

2005-07-21T22:25:00.000-05:00

For two reasons I think this day will show up in history:

1.) German President Köhler dissolved the German Parliament to allow new, early elections.

2.) China lowered the fixed exchange rate from 8.28 down to 8.11 Yuan per Dollar, agreeing to peg it to the Dollar and promised to tie the exchange rate in the future to a currency basket.

Maybe I am overreacting, but German's recent development in terms of government reminds me too much of Weinmarer Republic conditions. The fact that the current Chancellor Schröder is running again is beyond my understanding. If you feel that you don't have the platform to get your reforms through, either means you try to get something done that is not called for or you are not doing your job persuading the public what it needs. The later is too scary resembling Bush's approach of using all means of propaganda to convince people of false facts. In either case, the German democracy seems to be hurt by this decision. It is an indicator of its weakness which again is a sign of its ineffectiveness. Don't get me wrong, I am a convinced fighter of democracy, even if I haven't voted in a German election in a while. Of course, Germans still participate in elections and compared to the USA I still think people are not yet feeling that they can't change anything with their vote.
But when tactics like that are used to get a better result seems more like the statistician that massages data to the point that it fits his/her expectation to what the outcome should be in their opinion, rather than to accept the unbiased result.
I don't get the impression that Angela Merkel is a alternative to Gerhard Schröder, but this is a great gamble for the SPD to get a pink slip with the remark we need a change, no matter what this means in political terms. I will be following this election closely. Most interesting to me will be to find out if their are many swing voters and what the participation and mood of the new/young voters will be. And then there is still the suit before German Supreme Court (Bundersverfassungsgericht) to check the actual constitutionality of this act.

China has been doing so well for a while. But I thought that I remember that China had set is currency below value to ensure tremendous inflow of foreign currency, a modern form of dumping. Revaluation of the Yuan brings its value slightly up. However, it could be and I have to research this a bit more, that the Yuan had appreciate so much over the recent years but could rise due to fixed exchange rate that the lowering of it value actually sets it a its true value. But this still doesn't seem to fit into the picture. So what does that mean for China? It is now less cheaper to invest in China! And it yet remains to be seen how this pegging against other currencies will look like, (Bretton-Woods III?). I am somehow not yet convinced that China will openly let its currency fluctuate on the world market. If this is the first step for China to become more open, great, but then watch out what you asked for. The Chinese have been working on building up to be the next world superpower financially they are certainly on the way to become a force to reckon with. True, they have been already very much an export and import nation, but reserved non the less. I am glad that this is happening, but I skeptical of its sincerity. As an economist I am thrilled, since I don't believe in fixed currency politics, protectionism, or government intervention for the wrong reasons. Long live free trade and open borders!

But like I said, despite skepsis, mark this day in the calendar, it may change the world, even if just a little bit.

Your deficit counts?

2005-07-12T22:35:00.000-05:00

Last night I read in Steven Landsberg's [i]Fair Play[/i] his explanation of deficits. Now I have heard a great deal about pro ond cons of deficits, and in general I welcome deficit spending to boost an economy - in moderation, however. Now, the fact is that deficits are loans paid of in the future, that avoid taxation right now. Though the basis is that model relies on the assumption that the loan has to be paid back some time in the future. An exuberant deficit lowers the expectation that the loan will be paid back or at least increases the risk of defaulting. Now, the general belief is that the USA will never default on its debt due to its sheer mass of assets. When in doubt we can sell Louisiana back to the French and use the money, right? But sometimes, I wonder if this isn't a very easy answer that avoids actually thinking about the chance that other countries may get worried about their investment in the USA. Many of our lenders, and the deficit is largely borrowed money from abroad, are claimed to have a stake in our market to the point that we are large mass consumer of their exports. After all, here we have quite a bit discretionary / disposable income and a high standard of living. But politics is not always based on rational, the USA blocked trades with China for a while, based on human rights issues, induced by the cold war.
What I am trying to say is, that maybe it is not always wise to alienate many nations while holding out the hand to collect a contribution to our wealth. Reminds me a bit of sawing the branch you sit on. Then again, we may have so much more wealth in the next decades that we can pay back the deficit from our petty cash. Hopefully this isn't a sort of risky gambling that ends up costing us our livelihood or we might end up like the bump I met once in Freiburg, who was a former businessman who had lost it all betting on the wrong investment.
Question than remains, is the deficit invested wisely to boost our economy. Education seems no longer a worthwhile investment, nor does public health. Ownership is the new investment, stock market purchases the answer to retirement. But critics say, we have had this type of investment before and it led to the stock market crash of 1929 and the great depression. If we truly foster new innovation, this would be a great investment into the future. However, it seems that in most technological aspects the USA still has not the cutting edge, Asia seems so much ahead, that we see outsourcing in that direction, India, South Korea, China (Japan even looks a bit out dated these days compared to the up and coming economies!). Leaves us with service and consulting, but for those we need education more than anything else or good on-the-job training.

In the end, deficits may come and go. It is just fascinating with what speed the money circulates -- and I don't believe into a Tobin-tax for foreign investment, that is just another barrier for trade. Let people speculate if they want to! You can hardly prevent someone from defrauding others. So we could use a little bit more of ethical behavior when it comes to making money. But that is another story for another day!

Enlighten Me

2005-07-10T01:09:00.000-05:00

Would someone tell why we assume to be in such a growing economy, stable, and in "no crisis" mode, when the latest employment numbers show 25% less then forecasted (146K instead of 195,000). Now 3-5% error, I would consider tolerable, even 10% I could still see as a one time miss, but 25%? I am not convinced that borrowing money from abroad as fast as we do is healthy and sustainable. Where are those deficit reductions that were promised by the administration? The deficit is still growing! Where is the end of this? I hate being so dark, but we have to get our act together! We need some real results and not some phony stuff that catches peoples attention today and is forgotten by tomorrow.

NY Fed econ index slips in May

2005-05-16T11:32:00.000-05:00

"IHMO: This might be a start of what is to come. It certainly fits into the picture. Just not what I would like to see!"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Growth at New York state factories turned negative in May as the New York Federal Reserve Bank's "Empire State" index slipped to a two-year low for the second consecutive month.

The May headline index defied forecasts for an increase and instead slipped to -11.11 -- below the zero threshold that delineates growth from contraction in the survey. The New York Fed also revised the April figure downward to 2.03 from 3.12 last month. The median forecast in a Reuters survey of economists last week had pegged the May number at 10.5.

"The general business conditions index dropped fairly sharply for the second month in a row," the New York Fed said in a statement, adding that nearly a third of respondents -- up from 23 percent last month -- reported that business conditions had deteriorated.

"This is awful. The survey is much weaker than we expected, and it supports our view that the soft patch is not over," said to a research report by High Frequency Economics issued after the report was made public.

Conversely, the percentage of those who said conditions improved slipped in May to 21 percent from 25 percent in April.

The indexes for new and unfilled orders also slipped into negative territory and the number of employees index, while still positive, fell to its lowest level in two and a half years.

The new orders index fell to -7.08 and the April figure, which was originally just a nose above zero at 0.22, was downwardly revised to -1.22.

Shipments remained barely positive in May at 0.79, but the April figure was downwardly revised to 0.95 from an initial reading of 0.03.

The number of employees index in May, at 0.16, was barely positive, falling sharply from the April reading of 8.50.

Still the New York Empire state manufacturing survey stressed that not all the report was negative.

"The other forward-looking indexes were generally positive: expectations about general business conditions were little changed at fairly high levels, and expectations for both new orders and shipments improved," the bank said in the statement.

Dollar stable at all cost?

2005-05-10T08:24:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow the next important economic indicators will show whether the economy is further growing or on the way back into the trough. The Fed is walking a tight rope right now, if they overshot on their interest goal in order to prevent inflation they actually may burst the real estate bubble, resulting in a rather deflation but strong cooling of the economy. On the other hand, if the fed fails to raise interest rates (NO, they don't set them, but for simplicity lets word it this way!), the economy might overheat and cause inflationary pressure. So either way the US economy may face instability in the near future; however, it remains to be seen which direction we are heading. But lets put it this way, it doesn't look too rosy.
After all we still have gigantic budget deficits hovering over us!

veil of fog

2005-05-06T23:35:00.000-05:00

breath deep
outcasted banned
alone longing
wishing more
less seeing
more air
dry mouth
sweat perls
when
no
I

China Men!

2005-05-06T15:53:00.001-05:00

Well, it is time I tackle some other economic issue than Germany. The next best one is the rise of a sleepy giant, China. Slowly but surely the under par peg of the Chinese currency to other important ones resulted in the huge accumulation of foreign reserves in China and Asia in general has become your neighbor US lending fascility. Wouldn't you know it you may find it strange to think that much of the US deficit is coupeled to the enormous economic growth in China.

Here is a nice blog article on the topic China and US economy:
http://www.roubiniglobal.com/archives/2005/05/global_imbalanc.html
(title of this blog entry is the link to it, I still have to find out to insert links into the window)

Korea has show its teeth by simply threatening to sell of some of the US treasury bill it holds in its reserves and look what happened to the dollar that day!

This might become an interesting decade, if or when we find the first real US currency crisis. The dollar is not unfailable and the Euro is coming up as a strong alternative currency, not only economically, but with US oil policy pressing OPEC it might find one day that oil trade should occur in Euros and the geopolitical reasons make Europe the better, more stable ally.
Even the Chinese currency could one day after pegging is over be a remarkable milestone in the world economy.

Mistaken Prognosis

2005-05-06T07:40:00.000-05:00

{0CBD5799-D708-48C9-B10F-883E89F564E5}picture
Originally uploaded by ruitzhoferexpatriot.

FAZ infographic. This shows you how precise the German's have been the last decade, since the Re-Unification they have been off quite a bit. I wonder what the cause- effect here is, who is leading who?

German Precision and yet it is not good enough

2005-05-06T06:50:00.000-05:00

Coin toss for economic projection?

Yesterday an article appeared on the FAZ website about the German economic growth forecast. It was marvelous to see that Economist has projected a 1.4-1.8% growth increase for the coming year, last year, and indeed hit the nail on th head. When economic indicators were announced by the Bundesamt für Statistic, economic growth for the last year was 1.6%, bull's eye for the forecastors! Yet, they calmly agreed it was coincidental, after losing track in the first half the trend overrcorrect itself and brought the numbers back into target range. Lucky guess? The German administration, however, was not as keen on the forecasting prognosis. The new forecast indicated a 0.7% growth for the next year, half of last years. The grim look of that caused cabinet members to announce they had to adjust their lucky guess down to 1%.
In a country where Economists still can gain the title of economic wiseman, precision is not quite a lucky guess. The independency of the economic advisory board to the Chancellor appears to be intact, even in public, whereas the US Economic advisory board officially in print and press comes off as more of a "we tell you what you want to hear, Mr. Prez."

But who knows, articles like these show at least that there is a debate of how much precision one can have. From the private sector it seems like there are fairely good 18-month prognoses possible, even on a Macro scale. Why shouldn't it be possible on the ultimate sub-Macro-level, an entire country's economy -- versus the full Macro-level: worldwide economy (I have a feeling computational we are not there yet technology wise, but correct me if I am wrong) - to predict 12month economic growth? Although, it seems that there should be a good weather forecast, too and yet there are often on a 12hr basis wrong!
However, I doubt it is necessarily the math that is mistaken as more the conclusion that interpreted into the numbers. Again, IMHO.
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Konjunkturprognosen
Deutlich besser als ein Münzwurf
Von Patrick Welter

06. Mai 2005 Das vergangene Jahr war ein besonderes Jahr für die deutschen Konjunkturpropheten. Die Wachstumsprognosen lagen im Januar zwischen 1,4 Prozent und 1,8 Prozent. Tatsächlich wuchs die Wirtschaft um 1,6 Prozent. So präzise Prognosen gibt es selten, zufrieden sind die Ökonomen trotzdem nicht. Sie hatten den Exportboom unter- und die Erholung der Binnennachfrage überschätzt. Die Fehler haben sich aufs Jahr gerechnet ausgeglichen. Die Punktlandung sei ein Zufallstreffer gewesen, wertet Jörg Hinze vom Hamburgischen Weltwirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA).

Auch der Kanzler ist nicht zufrieden. Diese Art der Wissenschaft erinnere ihn an Meteorologie, schimpfte Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder (SPD) vergangene Woche, als die großen Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute das Frühjahrsgutachten vorlegten und ihre Wachstumsprognose für 2005, die im Herbst noch bei 1,5 Prozent lag, auf 0,7 Prozent halbierten. Den Kanzler ärgert, daß nun auch die Regierung ihre Vorhersage zurücknehmen mußte, von 1,6 auf 1 Prozent. Die Haushaltsrisiken steigen. Jeder Prozentpunkt weniger Wachstum kostet Bund, Städte und Kommunen rund 5Milliarden Euro Steuereinnahmen.

„Wir haben massive Fehlprognosen gemacht”

Für solche Probleme lassen sich die Konjunkturforscher ungern verantwortlich machen. Die meisten setzen die unvermeidbare Prognoseungenauigkeit mit mindestens 0,5 Prozentpunkten an - und zwar in beide Richtungen. Wird ein Wachstum von 0,7 Prozent prognostiziert, kann das also vieles bedeuten: von einer Fast-Stagnation bis hin zu einem Wachstum von rund 1,2 Prozent. In der öffentlichen Diskussion wird das meistens nicht wahrgenommen. Da gilt 0,7 als 0,7.

Das Problem der Forschungsinstitute und auch des Sachverständigenrats zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung ist, daß ihre Wachstumsprognosen in den vergangenen vier Jahren dreimal weit daneben lagen. "Wir haben massive Fehlprognosen gemacht", sagt Joachim Scheide, der Leiter der Konjunkturabteilung am Kieler Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW). "Wir hatten alle gedacht, daß sich Produktivitätsfortschritte durch die ,New Economy' zeigen würden und Deutschland im Trend stärker wachsen könnte. Das war eine Fehleinschätzung; der Wachstumstrend hat sich im Gegenteil von 2 auf 1 Prozent verlangsamt."

Große Schwankungen bei Ölpreis und Wechselkurs

Am größten waren die Fehler in den Jahren 2001 und 2002. Noch die Frühjahrsprognose der Institute im April zeigte die letztlich realisierten Wachstumsraten um 2,1 und 1,1 Prozentpunkte zu hoch an. "Man kann uns nicht vorwerfen, daß wir die Anschläge des 11. Septembers 2001 und den dann rasanten Wirtschaftseinbruch nicht vorhergesagt haben", verteidigt Alfred Steinherr, der Konjunkturchef am Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) in Berlin, die Ökonomen. Die deutschen Institute waren damals nicht die einzigen; auch andere Institutionen setzten ihre Prognosen deutlich und wiederholt herab - und hatten Schwierigkeiten, die Spätfolgen der geplatzten Spekulationsblase an den Aktienbörsen im Jahr 2000 abzuschätzen.

Konjunkturprognostiker haben immer dann große Probleme, wenn seltene, bedeutende Ereignisse auftreten. Das war beim ersten Ölpreisschock 1974 der Fall, aber auch in den Jahren nach der deutschen Einheit. Die jüngsten Fehlprognosen begründet Steinherr auch damit, daß die großen Schwankungen von Ölpreis und Wechselkurs die Annahmen der Forscher hinfällig werden ließen. Zudem seien die wirtschaftspolitischen Reformen und die neuen Investitionsmöglichkeiten der Unternehmen in Ausland noch nicht hinreichend in den Formeln erfaßt, mit denen die Vorhersagen errechnet werden.

„Ökonomik ist unsichere Wissenschaft”

Wer Punktprognosen erwarte, verlange "einfach das Unmögliche", sagt Steinherr. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, daß die 0,7 Prozent Wachstum in diesem Jahr tatsächlich eintreffen, beziffert er gerade mal mit "um die 0,15 Prozent". Wichtiger als die exakte Wachstumszahl ist für ihn die Erklärung, warum das Wachstum in dieser Größenordnung ausfallen werde und unter welchen Bedingungen nicht. All das wird in den Gutachten über viele Seiten hinweg erläutert. "Doch haben wir in dieser Hinsicht nicht genug Aufklärung geleistet", sagt Scheide vom Kieler IfW.

Er verweist auf ein weiteres Problem: „Die Ökonomik ist eine sehr unsichere Wissenschaft, wir können nicht präzise Vorhersagen leisten.” Die Wirtschaft sei ein lebendiger Prozeß, der sich nur unvollkommen in Formeln pressen lasse - und der die Intuition der Forscher fordere. Alle Prognosen beruhen auf Modellrechnungen, die erst durch korrigierende Eingriffe erfahrener Ökonomen zu plausiblen Konjunkturszenarien zurechtgerückt werden.

Bundesregierung prognostiziert nicht besser

Daß trotz dieser Schwierigkeiten die Konjunkturprognosen deutlich besser sind als eine Vorhersage mittels Münzwurf, hat eine Untersuchung der Ökonomen Jörg Döpke und Ulrich Fritsche für ein Diskussionspapier des DIW ergeben. Dies gilt zumindest für die Richtungsprognose der Konjunkturentwicklung. Hinsichtlich der Wachstumsraten beträgt der durchschnittliche Prognosefehler jedoch 0,6 Prozentpunkte. Die Bundesregierung schneidet nicht besser, aber auch nicht schlechter ab als andere Fachleute. In der Studie wurden Vorhersagen von 14 Institutionen, vom Internationalen Währungsfonds bis zur EU-Kommission, vom arbeitgebernahen IW bis zum gewerkschaftsnahen WSI, vom IfW im Norden bis zum Ifo-Institut im Süden Deutschlands, für den Zeitraum 1970 bis 2003 unter die Lupe genommen.

Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß Konjunkturpropheten zu leicht optimistischen Vorhersagen neigen. Qualitätsunterschiede sind gering und lassen sich durch den Prognosezeitpunkt erklären: Wer später prognostiziert, hat mehr Daten und Wissen zur Verfügung. Die Institute etwa sehen die Konjunktur im Frühjahr deutlich zutreffender voraus als im Herbst des Vorjahres - im Niveau und in der Enticklungsrichtung. Die Klage des Kanzlers über das Ausmaß der Revisionen lenkt davon ab, daß jüngere Prognosen die besseren sind.

Wirtschaftsministerium: Prognosen sind wichtig

Das Murren der Politiker über die Prognosen habe zugenommen, heißt es in den Instituten, und mancher sorgt sich, daß die Bundesregierung die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose abschaffen könne. 1,3 Millionen Euro zahlt das Wirtschaftsministerium für das Frühjahrs- und das Herbstgutachten, 1,7 Millionen Euro kosten die Gutachten des Sachverständigenrates. Es gebe keine Überlegungen, die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose zu streichen, sagt indes die Sprecherin von Wirtschaftsminister Wolfgang Clement (SPD). Der Minister habe deutlich gemacht, "daß die Prognosen wichtig sind und daß wir sie brauchen".

Doch Clement mag es im Frühjahr zur Stimmungsaufhellung und mit Blick auf eine günstigere Steuerschätzung oft einen Hauch optimistischer als die Institute. Wie sich politischer Zweckoptimismus in Vorhersagen niederschlägt, zeigt sich noch deutlicher in den mittelfristigen Erwartungen. Bis 2009 soll die Wirtschaft nach der neuen Vorhersage der Bundesregierung jährlich zwischen 1,5 und 2 Prozent wachsen. Ökonomen veranschlagen den Wachstumstrend dagegen mit nur einem Prozent. Würde Clement das eingestehen, wäre die Zusage von Finanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) an die Europäische Union, das Staatsdefizit bis 2008 um mehr als die Hälfte auf rund 1,5 Prozent zu reduzieren, schon jetzt hinfällig.

Warum Konjunkturexperten irren
Unzutreffende Annahmen: Prognosen über die Konjunkturentwicklung beruhen auf Annahmen, beispielsweise über den Ölpreis und den Wechselkurs. Wenn die Annahmen nicht eintreffen, wie es in den vergangenen Jahren oft der Fall war, muß die Prognose revidiert werden. Beispiel 2004/5: Im Herbst erwarteten die Institute einen auf 37 Dollar je Barrel (159 Liter) fallenden Ölpreis. Jetzt liegt er bei rund 50 Dollar.

Externe Schocks: Unerwartete Ereignisse kann niemand prognostizieren. Beispiel 2001/02: Die Terroranschläge vom 11. September 2001 ließen die Weltkonjunktur einbrechen.

Trügerische Daten: Zum Prognosezeitpunkt liegen den Ökonomen über die Entwicklung "am aktuellen Rand"nur wenig vorläufige Daten vor, die regelmäßig geändert werden. Die endgültigen Daten können ein gänzlich anderes Konjunkturbild zeichnen als zuvor angenommen. Beispiel 2001: Bis in den Mai hinein meldeten die Statistiker - wie auch prognostiziert - eine kräftige Belebung der Investitionen. Von August an ergaben revidierte Daten ein ganz anderes Bild: Die Unternehmen investierten schon seit Herbst 2000 immer weniger.

Unberechenbare Wirtschaftspolitik: Entscheidungen der Regierung und der Tarifpartner sind nicht vorhersehbar. Beispiel 1995: Die IG Metall setzte Lohnerhöhungen von 6,4 Prozent durch; die Unternehmen bauten Arbeitsplätze ab statt auf. Beispiel 2005: Die Auswirkungen der Hartz-IV-Reformen auf den Arbeitsmarkt können auch von der Bundesregierung nur geschätzt werden.

Burning down the house

2005-04-28T22:28:00.000-05:00

I feel so awful. Two doors down, my neighbors' house burned down. When we got back this afternoon there were 8 fire trucks, a helicopter, ambulances, police cars, and lots of spectators in the street. I had to go to a meeting and when I came back at 10pm, there were still people working on the house. Rumors has it that it is unsuitable for living at this point. Now I am not sure whether I should go over and offer my help. But on the other hand I don't want to be nosy. I am also very tired, I just can't help thinking what would I do if this was us. Would I want someone show up? What would I feel would help me in such a situation? Would a pot of coffee do? Or ignore the misery, not my problem? That I feel is a sad answer.

Economists are lousy bloggers

2005-04-26T22:37:00.000-05:00

Okay, I am jealous since economists are not lawyers. Law blogs are amazing, economics blogs are almost none existant. If you look around blogger, there is almost no blog that has been maintained passed 2004, if there is an entry at all. WTF.
Instead, I find that those whose blog suppose to contain economics or statistics is (like mine) more personal and less field related!

Anyway, I finally got the job of my dreams. Kind of scary, first being unemployed for almost 4 entire months and then the endless interviews. I am so overwhelmed with joy, but now I need to get going on my projects before time runs out and I have to work. Cool, I will be an analyst now and get to do the statistics to work, too!

It takes a lot of burden of my shoulder.

EDIT:
I found some nice ones but I have to figure out how to link!

Noch was

2005-04-17T00:40:00.000-05:00

Gestohlen, geklaut, gelogen, geraubt, gewonnen, gefunden, gestern, gerne, güter, günstig, gewesen, gesessen, gelaufen, gegessen, genommen, gegeben, gelernt, gefeiert, gefeuert, gesprochen, gesagt, gefragt, geglaubt, geflirten, geflittert, gewusst, getan, geschockt, geschworn, gefleht, gestartet, gespielt, geschlafen, gehandelt, getrunken, gesehen, gereist, gerechnet, geführt, geflogen, gestopt, geklappt, gedacht, gelacht, gehustet, gehaust, gerudert, gezählt, gewacht, ganz, gut, geliebt, getroffen, genau. Heiter, ich, jetzt, kabel, lieber, man, nach, oder, pallawer, quamquam, rein, sinn, tun, über, voll, wegen, xtrovatiert, yemine, zart!
und du?

was fuer ne nacht!

2005-04-16T23:59:00.000-05:00

Mond-schein,
Stern-schnupper,
Fern-seher,
Sehn-sucht,
Gluecks-gefuehl,
Liebes-kummer,
Irr-sinn,
Reise-fieber,
Himmel-blau,
kein problem! Unbequem, aber heiss! Mal sehen wo es uns hinzieht oder wie es weiter geht. Ich wette morgen geht es weiter.
Bald ist Juli!

Citizen? Where?

2005-04-06T20:01:00.000-05:00

Alright, yesterday, my town had elections. "Superelection" they called it, because the combined elections for the city council, the two school districts boards, the township and even more. Now, I have to admit, as non-citizen, legal alien, I am tempted to get citizenship just for that reason! I was surprised to read that the voter participation was 22% for the city council! Wonne-woppe 22%, that is less then a quarter of the population of the city, granted it is 22% of the entire population including the 0-18year olds who can't vote. Actually if you take out the population of 20years and younger, that's all I could find online, it is just 26% voter participation (on 2003 population data, so that has changed giving that our city is still growing crazy -- and I am not talking here of mental problems!). No much better. How can a city justify running with barely a quarter of its population picking the council members. I really don't understand how residents, of non-citizen nature, can't vote for the city council! I do understand that legal aliens shouldn't have anything to say who will be the next president, but city council? Seriously? What are they afraid would happen? That the foreigners hijack the city? Force people to drive on the left side of the road with in city limits? After all my daughter is attending the local schools, shouldn't I have something to say who governs these schools? That's when I feel like I am a resident of second class! If they try to teach my child that creationist crap or mismanage the math department, I am not supposed to vote off the guys up there?
If I would like my European citizenship and origins I would be a citizen by now!

negativism sure sucks you down

2005-03-30T22:42:00.000-06:00

First the cold cloggs your nose, your chest and any hole you seem to have above the belly button. Then it warms up, your cold vanishes and you think, swell, no more cold. But with Spring comes the moisture and ALLERGY season, so your nose is tickling you to insanity, your tongue swells, ears itch, eyes water.
Now, one should do a nice survey looking into the correlation of negativity and stress to allergies, maybe even do a study on the effect of stress on colds. But I am sure it has been done and proven.

birthdays are funny business

2005-03-25T22:24:00.000-06:00

you wait a couple of days before you call, you don't want to call twice. you figure, you wait until the actual day. then on the day you try tohit the right hour, not too early, and not too late. sometimes the day gets so eventful you forget to call even tough you thought of it pretty much most of the day. so you call later. big deal! is it, or no?
I love my birthday and hate it at the same time.You get nice calls and get to talk to a lot of friends, but then I won't get to see them as I used to. my own family is there though, thank godness. they celebrate with me. it is odd perhaps that they don't know much of my youth, so funny stories remain untold and there is a change in schedule: grown-up birthday.

It shakes you and moves you,

2005-03-13T23:38:00.000-06:00

It catches you and chews you up from the inside and spits you out! Better watch out!

I used to consume it at midnight and go to bed right afterwards. It would wake me up in the morning and get me going. There was a time I would meet it at any corner several times a day. But it took over, after the initial friendly phase, it lost the relaxing wibe. It soon got stronger and stronger, while the soft taste faded away. Its perception others started describing as mean. Soon I was no longer able to function without, couldn't think straight. Where I was, it wasn't far behind. We became one item and unseparable. It carried me and soon became my crutch. It took my independence, robbed me of my sleep. It started crippling me, caused me physical pain. I had to get out, there was no other choice, it had to leave! And yet it comes back, there is no escape. I do need my coffee and would miss, yet it does hurt me. After all decaf is no alternative!

Magnetic Feet

2005-03-12T15:12:00.000-06:00

I am convinced my feet are magnetic, so are my daughters or as a matter of fact any kid that walks with me. I bet yours are, too. But you may have never noticed it. Feet have two poles, just like any other magnet: one south and one north pole. Of course, it is really hard to do make a compass out of your feet, since I am afraid they lose their magnetic capability when they get disconnected from one's body. It must have something to do with blood streaming through feed, but that is not the point I wanted to make. Who in their right mind would cut of a foot to make a compass out of it anyway?
I first noticed that my feet are magnetic about a week ago, when picking up my daughter at school. She and her friend walked ahead of me, but as I got closer they ended up right infront of me, slowing down until their feed where against mine. Their heels against my toes. I tried avoiding collision by stepping passed them, which worked for a while. However, soon their feet caught up with mine and soon again I felt the attraction of their polarity to my heels.
Now, if this isn't magnitism at its finest!? I wonder what good one can do with the knowledge of the existence of magnetic feet?

Now what?

2005-03-02T23:34:00.000-06:00

Expectations are another form of price, just emotionally valued and thus hard to express in currency values. But sometimes you can estimate expectation well by looking at the next best alternative, its opportunity cost, sometimes you can find monetary values in these alternatives. But is it accurate or simple to find the cost of an expectation? Well, this bagged questions is neither just rhetoric nor is the answer as simple as yes or no. An expectation is a multifacet animal, one can look at it value it differently than the next person. A service rendered can be an expectation, but these are often handled with actual prices, unless these services are not bought in the regular sense. Lets look closer at favors. If you ask a friend for a favor, your expectation is the value of your favor asked. The expectation to receive such favor has to be greater then the cost of this favor to your friend, and by cost of course we are not speaking of monetary. So the effort undertaken has to gain for both of you more than the value of the alternative, not doing it. Text books suggest that the opportunity cost is the value of the next best alternative, but who determines what that is? Is it really obvious to people what they value emotions or activities that are in no way valued in monetary sense. Talking directly, a favor only occurs if both people value their expectation of doing such favor more than not doing it. So why would one do a favor? Coersion or blackmailing, not quite legal but I am sure it happens! Think of a bank robber with a gun and the bank teller with the received request to do a favor to the bank robber filling up the bag with money at no direct monetary cost. Why does the bank teller give out the money? Obviously, s/he favors life over death and thus his expectations to have a higher chance of surviving the robbery must be more valuable to her/him than resisting. I suggest s/he values their future emotions or expectations of such emotions higher than the money lost in the robbery. Maybe, would the teller know of passing away after the robbery s/he would act differently.
This fits nicely into the theory that there is a non-monetary currency out there, called emotions or expectations that are really hard to value in numbers, because everybody would feel differently about them. Economists use often something called utils, or happiness values. New research attempts to place numbers on utils by measuring brain activity and studying the human brain reacting to certain stimulations. That way, researches hope to identify the value each person has for certain activity. It would be interesting to include such measure of the well-being of people into the state of an economy, to see how healthy or wealthy an economy really is. Maybe one could even negotiate interest on feelings in monetary form. Banks now offering emotion accounts, automatic deposit and withdrawal would be difficult, but maybe their monetary value can be stored. Then, of course, the offering of derivatives on emotions wouldn't be that far away. You could literaly sell your smile on the market. What next, maybe the soul? I would like to see a price of that!
Or maybe there is something to not knowing everything. Afterall, that is what distinguishes humans from robots. Emotions cannot (at least yet) be calculated or one could program feelings into machines, a quite scary thought!

Waiting

2005-02-28T20:56:00.000-06:00

I have waited a lot in my life. Next to eating and sleeping, waiting has been in my life more or less all the time.
If there is one thing I remember well from my childhood than it's waiting. Waiting for school to be over, waiting for my dad to pick me up, waiting for meals, waiting for the weekend, waiting for friends to call, waiting for vacations, waiting for being old enough, waiting for a girl to notice me, waiting for the weather to change, waiting for neough money to buy what I liked, waiting, waiting, waiting.
Now when will waiting end? Do I have to wait for that? For a while I had waiting under control. For me, waiting has something uncontrollable, beyond my own capacity. Lately though, waiting has come back, freezing, like a lizzard in the dark, waiting has slowed me down. Waiting even waits for me around any corner, sneaks up and when I feel it shook it off, it creeps back in. Waiting even replaced sleeping, I never had problems sleeping, I couldn't wait to sleep. Now, sleep can wait, too.
I thought waiting only preyed on children, would leave you when you grow up, fleeing responsibility. In a way, waiting seemed irresponsible and childish, nothing a grown-up should be seeing hanging out with. It seduces you, makes you want more and ties you up in its vanilla flavor. It lures you romantically into waiting for it. It should be rated R, better banned altogether.
No more waiting for school, no more waiting for a job, no more waiting to serve meals, no more waiting for shows to come on, no more waiting for the weekend, the next chance to celebrate something, something positive, relaxing, calming, comforting, motivating, energizing.
I am sick of waiting, I want it to leave. Seak out someone else to annoy, let me be active. I want MY life back!

Oh, wait, I forgot...

Where have all the .. gone

2005-02-25T11:28:00.000-06:00

Initially, I started this blog to sort my thought on some econometric problems I wanted to sort out in written form and build sort of a reference work for future usage. Now, there has nothing been metric in the last entries (actually in none of them).
Instead here is a general though on economics and social behavior.
Physists, Chemists, and even most economists will tell you that contrary to common believe there is no such thing as the legendary free lunch! In physics you can't invent matter, no energy appears from out of nowhere, it has to be released. Same in chemistry, atoms of oxygen cannot be created. They have to be harvested or released. And in economics, a free lunch might be free for you, but I am sure there is someone, somewhere that has to pay for it at some point. (With exception of money that can just be created in form of the monetary multiplier and interest rates). Basic principle and necessarry assumption, however, is the existance of a) property rights and b) prices. But even those can be neglected and people will still not get away with a free lunch without paying somehow for it.
Now, but how is it with the human behavior or mood? Have you ever been in the situation where you feel pretty negative and whereever you look there is dark matter? You sure are not easy as company for others. So think of the positive feeling as something that is like energy or economic potential. You are more productive if you have positive attitude! I believe you can't just sit there and invent positive feelings. You can fool yourself in feeling positive with drugs or other addictions, i.e. shopping sprees, but those are usually only temporary fixes.
So maybe increments of success as transfer payments of positive feelings will bring the mood account back into balance. Yet, not without debiting someone elses account with negative feeling. See it as a constant resource of "happiness", in order to become happy someone else has to become unhappy. Now, if there is a balancing act of happyiness withdrawal and receiving happiness.
Hope is therefore a necessarry to price of people's happiness. The amount of hope one has correlates to the amount of happiness withdrawn over time. People that have lost much happiness, can either have high hopes, value happiness a lot, if they expect to receive in the future happiness back (optimist) or very little hope if the prediction of past negative experiences leads to the assumption it will continue to be this way (pessimist).
Similar assertions can be made for the one person having more happiness than average. Opistimism will lead to high hopes to continues to receive happiness and low hope in form of pessimism.
But IMHO it is impossible to create happiness, just like oxygen can't be created out of nothing. You need to harvest happiness or receive it exogenously.

Though it might help closer analysing the own account of happiness and looking for the receipts rather than the outflow, thus re-evaluating the price of happiness or hope!

Don't laugh, this may sound rather abstract and foolish as analysis but writting things like this down can lead maybe to a better understanding of how to become happy and thus make the whole think more predictable. Who wouldn't like that?

Catch22

2005-02-24T14:50:00.000-06:00

Alright, I am disappointed! I have been applying for jobs now for several months, since September 2004 actively, to be precise. I finished of my M.A. in Economics two months ago. Now, whereeer I apply, I get the same response: You don't have enough experience, we need one with more experience. Where can I get more experience, if people don't give me chance to get some. And it is not, like I am trying to get a job that requires that much experience.
On the other hand I get offers for doing work that one could do with high school diploma and absolutely no experience. Well, wtf did I get a Masters for.
Why is it so hard to get a job! I spend 5 years working and then another 5 years studying and now I am at a dead end. No job in sight and nothing seems to work out. I am pissed off. When I started College 5yrs ago, it seemed like everyone got a job that was alive and not too stupid to spell their name. And now?
All I ask for is a chance to prove that I can do more and I am willing to work hard.

Head-On (Gegen die Wand)

2005-02-19T23:35:00.000-06:00

I want to see if I can find this around here. This movie was reviewed on slate.com:
http://www.slate.com/id/2113147
and apparantly is already out on DVD in Germany but not here. The trailor:
http://www.gegendiewand.de/flash.html
Kiwi said she would like to see it, too.

PS. how do I get those links to work?

Erstes Mal

2005-02-19T09:59:00.000-06:00

Just trying to see how this will look online! =) There is more to follow!